06-06-06: I have a soft spot for Ford Motor Company. I really don’t know why this is honestly. It's not because they build the best cars in the world, or because they do everything right or even because they are more charitable than any other car company. For me I can only offer up the fact that I grew up around Ford vehicles and I love cars. I am a product of my environment.

So over the past few years I have been a study of Ford’s struggles as well as those of their counterpart GM. In many ways their predicaments have been parallel. Both have lost gobs of market share due to vehicles that are out of sync with the marketplace for one reason or another. All the blames for this have been raked over so we will leave that be.

I know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. This too shall pass as they say. While the recovery will come at the cost of a lot of jobs, shuttered factories, and a much downsized footprint there are signs that both GM and Ford will be healthy again.

The price of stock in both companies has been a fascinating roller-coaster to watch in the past three years. In 2003 Ford had plummeted to under $7 per share from a much loftier $25 per share in 2001. Granted that fall was precipitated by the recession and the events of September 11th. They bounced back on the heels of a dynamic showing at NAIAS 2004 with the Ford GT, 500, the new Mustang, and a host of other new models and concepts. The show stages painted a bright picture of Ford's future. That February the stock soared to about $16 and held there for nearly a year.

But in 2005 the fortunes dried up again as they began losing more market share. Some of the new models didn’t resonate as expected such as the new Ford Explorer and the Ford 500. Further, costs were on the rise, wall street was lowering credit ratings and we are now back to stock prices of around $7 per share.

So when is the time to buy in? When is the slot machine going to pay out once more? Well that is a good question. My wife who is also an avid stock watcher believes it will get worse before it gets better. She says we will buy when it gets to $5 a share and only then. So in my household we may or may not be buying in just yet.

Recent news coming from Ford’s Mark Fields suggests that it will be a while still before the bleeding stops. Because they are financially strapped several new product introductions or freshenings have been delayed or cancelled. A new small car line that would fill a gaping hole in the Ford showrooms is another 2-3 years away. This is really too bad because it's the one area where GM has really cashed in this year in what is now their comeback. They have been able to roll out a wave of new product to solve their market slide and are now starting to bounce back. That wave is built on new small cars from Chevrolet, Pontiac and Saturn. Cadillac is setting the world on fire and Buick is coming back too.

Ford on the other hand seems to be slower at responding to the need for new and fresh product. It is not for lack of trying however. Everything that is said by Ford executives in recent months indicates that they well know what is on the dance card. They know which products are stale. They know where the mistakes are. They know what the cure is. And they say they are on it.

I will state for the record that I believe them. The “Way Forward” might be slow in coming, but I see every indication that they are working through the war battle by battle. The problem is that they are short on soldiers and ammunition. They will eventually win the war, but it may be drawn out a little longer.

Some of their previously rumored plans that sounded like losers such as a new full size sedan replacement for the Crown Victoria, Town Car, and Marquis based on the FWD Ford 500 are reported to be cancelled. Instead they will be doing a RWD car now based on the Mustang or Australian platforms. Good news, but it means it will be a while longer. Other bright lights are sightings of facelifted Ford 500 sedans, Econoline vans and Escapes tooling around Dearborn — all with the new "Bold Face".

I don't buy the notions of collapse or bankruptcy. One big difference in Ford Motor Company that sets it apart from any other mega-corporation is the fact that it is not only run by a man who’s name is on the building, but the family still controls a huge share of it. While Bill Ford Jr. may have to hire a lot of generals to help him win the war, he will go down fighting. The people running Ford are no Enron style corporate raiders who will be happy to drive the company into the ground and run away with the loot. No, this is family. They are in it for their lives. Perhaps this is one of the reasons I have a soft spot for them. It matters.

So is it time to buy Ford stock? Perhaps so. Whether or not it will dip to $5 a share before the comeback I don’t know. But my guess is that by the time it gets the steam to hit $10 again, it is likely to continue on the rise.